BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 137 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a card at Brazil. DraftKings has some adequate contests available with this Fight Night card, which is rare for these free ones. The main tourney is an $8 entry and pays $20k to 1st. That is the principal GPP I will be pursuing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and only entry GPPs too. However, this week DraftKings includes two competitions for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib battle. Flight, hotel, and fights all paid for. The floor seats competition is a $33 entrance along with the non-floor seats contest is only a $15 entrance. I will need to take a few shots at that too. Also, DraftKings just released a contest for UFC 299 that’s a $10 entry having a massive $100,000 to 1st place. That’s by far the biggest prize we’ve seen in DFS MMA, so let’s build a bankroll this weekend so we can shoot a few additional shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is your safest win on the card and that I believe she gets this battle finished early. This is where I’m starting my money LUs this week. Only give me the -1100 favored who is being fed an easy win , for my cash games. I do like a great deal of the top favorites with this particular card, I simply are the most shocked if Souza lost. I think she is fine in both formats, but she will probably be chalky in GPPs, therefore cash games are the best place to get your Souza investment this week. Simply take this win, and then find 3 others and you should be useful in money games.
GPP play of this week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I’m a large Charles”Do Bronx” Oliveira fan, and he’s a few of my favorites submissions in UFC history. I believe we could see another awesome one here. This battle seems easy to call. Do Bronx will look for the early takedown and if he can get it then he probably gets a 1st round sub. If this happens he must lock up a strong 100 points and I am pretty confident in being the results of the fight, so that’s why he’s my GPP drama of this week. He’s also my GPP drama of this week, rather than my Money play of this week for a motive. If he can’t get the takedown(s) early, then he’ll likely quit and get completed himself with strikes. I don’t like that risk of a reduced floor because of my money LU, so I prefer Souza there. But in GPPs I like saving the $200 and going down to perform Bronx.
Underdog drama of this week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I’d like Anders more if he was not taking this fight on short notice, and if it was not in Brazil. However he can have a very clear route to victory here and that is by knocking out Santos who does not possess a great chin. Anders could also go for takedowns in this fight and he can win with a few tough GNP as well. At $7.6k he will almost surely end up on the winning LU when he is able to acquire the KO. This is the major event, so he’ll have 5 rounds to work with. I do think this is a solid matchup for Anders, but he must be competitive and not hang out to the outside. If he hangs out to the outside too long Santos will eat up him with kicks and it might be a short night for Anders. I will pick him to get the win here as an underdog in Brazil and I think he gets it done in the first two rounds with a KO. That will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it will win you a GPP if you can get your other 5 spots correct as well.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of the week here, I was very wrong and that he scored over 100 points. If that happens , then so be it. But I refuse to rely on an early KO win to pay off a $9.2k salary by a guy who doesn’t throw several strikes. At $9.2k I need at least 92 points from Alvey when I roll up him and the only way get caught that is with a 1st round KO win. That could occur here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not eager to invest my money in it.
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