Teaser bets in the NFL

Disclaimer

The study on this webpage is based on the 4450 NFL matches between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started using 1994 because that was the year that the two-point conversion rule was released. Besides sample size variation, I also needed to make assumptions about how point spreads were made on teaser cards. To save time, rather than analyzing all 12 known types of parlay cards, I analyzed five types. To obtain an understanding of how extra points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation.

The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected yield anywhere on this site. In the end of the day, sports are finally played with human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on previous outcomes, with a grain of salt.

Off the Board Teasers
“Off the Board” (OTB) teasers are based on the current point spreads off the gambling board in the time of their bet. No card is filled out. Instead, the bettor informs the author the number of legs at the teaser, amount of further points on each leg, so the wager amounts he wishes to parlay, and the amount of the wager. By way of instance, the bettor might say,”Three-team, 6-point NFL teaser on 213, 218 and 224 for $100.”

The bettor may choose to get 6, 6.5 or 7 additional points on each leg of this teaser. Obviously, the more points the bettor takes, the less he stands to win. Winning odds vary from location to place, so please refer to my cover tables for whom pays the best chances. But for the lazy readers on the market, Jerry’s Nugget has the very best OTB teaser odds for most the number of legs and points.

Following is my individual evaluation of 6-point, 6.5-point, and 7-point teasers.

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