UFC FN145 Betting Tips & Plays

Jan Blachowicz Breakdown:

Both guys come into this battle career highs. Santos has looked unstoppable since moving up to light heavyweight, whilst Blachowicz currently rides a dominant four battle win streak. This matchup however appears to favour Blachowicz in several ways. Durability and cardio is going to be a big factor and there’s a not many tougher than Blachowicz. Santos throws everything with complete power and is based on finishing competitions. In a five round combat this approach is a risky one that is going to backfire in the later rounds. Blachowicz brings quitting power of his own but conserves cardio to get a more consistent output. On the feet both guys can get their moments, but the exact jab of Blachowicz will be likely to trigger Santos problems. His boxing is reckless yet wild and also a straight jab is one of the best counters to looping hooks. The biggest advantage goes to Blachowicz on the floor. As Santos tires that the takedowns will be available and Santos has historically struggled at the grappling department. The BJJ black-belt skills should find Blachowicz a finish once the opportunity presents.
Bet = Blachowicz at 2.00 (+100) chances. Risk 3 Units to win 3.0 Units.
Damir Ismagulov Breakdown:
Ismagulov welcomes the UFC newcomer in what ought to be a one sided affair. On the feet Ismagulov is quick with his in and out striking. Defensively he averts trouble whilst throwing in some gaudy strikes to keep opponents guessing. Alvarez appears thinner on the toes using a riskier style. He keeps his hands but does throw aggressive combinations. The significant differential lies in the grappling department. Alvarez hasn’t shown great takedown defense on the regional scene and relies on high hazard admissions off his back. This strategy succeeds. Look for Ismagulov to push his edge standing and search for excursions and takedowns into the mat where he favours control and top position through floor and pound.
Bet = Ismagulov at 1.34 (-290) chances. Risk 5 Components to win 1.70 Units.
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