From the words of Sir Mix-a-Lot, uh double-up uh-uh. We’ve got Wednesday night’s game (10:07 p.m. ET, ESPN) involving the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics on faucet, following up on our award-atomizing preview of Tuesday’s competition. That game was not too tough to deal with; we faded the Yankees because pitcher Domingo German is overvalued in the market. Looks like we weren’t alone. At press time, the A’s have moved on Tuesday’s MLB odds board to as low as +110 from +140.
Wednesday’s game is going to be a bit harder. J.A. Happ (5.55 FIP) is starting for the Yankees, although Mike Fiers (4.77 FIP) responds for Oakland. It’s a benefit for the A’s, but maybe not sufficient for us to put the home side like –110 favorites. Perhaps that 9.5-run total will be more to our liking.
Maybe. Our lovable panel of quants may have other thoughts, however:
Equivalent Odds (using SBR Odds Converter): –104
Jeff Sagarin’s Generic Total (approx.) : 9.25-9.5 runs
There is room on the moneyline to choose on either side in this battle Because you can see. The complete is tight, too. There could be a tiny opening to recommend that the”under” for a small sum, but we’re likely to call an audible and give the”above” an opportunity instead, based on a few factors — such as the weather. Wednesday’s game-time forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures at the mid-70s, which ought to help improve the run total in what is a pitcher’s park.
Free MLB Select: Over 9.5 (–104) at Pinnacle
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