Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum



The referendum that is scottish Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent potential for a ‘no’ vote, as the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies know the results associated with the referendum that is scottish advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure appears that way.

Scotland has voted in which to stay the UK, with 55.3 percent of voters determining against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and slots of vegas casino no deposit codes losing votes was because wide as 10 percent; lots of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions had been split straight down the middle.

The stark reality is, polls were all over the accepted spot: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a lead that is six-point the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to your referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.

Margins of Error

Maybe Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured out ages ago. While the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online sports betting outfit Betfair had already determined to pay out bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote several times before the referendum even occurred. And even though there was a whiff of a PR stunt about this announcement, it was made from a position of supreme confidence, because the wagering markets were rating the likelihood of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the very least a week before the vote happened. It was a forecast that, unlike that of the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead up to the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared to the wagering areas, and exactly why is the media in such thrall for their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling companies openly acknowledge that their studies are inaccurate, usually advising that we have to enable a margin of mistake, commonly around five percent. This means in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their information is utterly worthless. The existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless in a race where one party, according to the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent.

The questions that are wrong

You will find many factors which make polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to list here. Sometimes the sample size of respondents is simply too low, or it is unrepresentative of the population. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are dishonest or sloppy about recording information. However the ultimate, prevailing reason why polls fail is they usually ask the wrong question. Instead of asking people who they are going to vote for, they must be asking the relevant question that the bookies constantly ask: ‘Who you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers implies that this concern yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also think about the opinions of those because it may yield more honest answers. around them, and maybe also’

Dishonest Answers

In a situation for instance the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change, those interviewed by pollsters tend to be more likely to express their support for change, while curbing their concerns concerning the feasible negative consequences. When expected about an issue on the spot, it’s easier to express the perceived popular view. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might express the attractive proposition of severing ties with a remote and unpopular federal government in Westminster, but it also means uncertainty and feasible chaos that is economic.

As Wolfers says, ‘There is just a historical propensity for polling to overstate the chance of success of referendums, possibly because we’re more willing to share with pollsters we will vote for change than to do so. Such biases are less likely to want to distort polls that ask people who they think will win. Indeed, in giving their expectations, some respondents may also reflect on whether or not they believe polling that is recent.

A significant number of Scots apparently lied in short, when asked whether they would vote for an independent Scotland. Gamblers, on the other hand, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close After Wynn Everett License Pick

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has dropped by 40 % in recent years. Now the choice of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino license has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image: bloodhorse.com)

Suffolk Downs, the historic thoroughbred horseracing track in East Boston, is to close, officials have announced. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the single East Massachusetts casino license because of their Wynn Everett project, that will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring an unlikely casino repeal vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the very first casualty of the week’s selection process. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the final nail into the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in their state. Suffolk is one of only two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, and the only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort would be to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the very least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better prospective to generate jobs and open up brand new avenues of revenue for their state. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the announcement that the track wouldn’t normally manage to continue right after the Gaming Commission’s decision had been made general public.

End for the Track

‘We are extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth a huge number of jobs, small business and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We shall be meeting with workers and horsemen over the next several times to speak about exactly how we wind down racing operations, as being a legacy that is 79-year of racing in Massachusetts will be coming to a conclusion, ensuing in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking individuals.’

The industry has been hit with a 40 per cent lowering of modern times and Suffolk’s closure probably will affect hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others whom make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The need to safeguard Suffolk Downs was one of many primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the choice to go with Wynn has angered many individuals.

‘Today’s decision to award the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents out of work,’ stated Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could minmise the working jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Deep History

Many industry workers feel betrayed by politicians and the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so difficult to obtain that gaming bill passed with the proven fact that it would definitely save the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and supervisor of the farm that is breeding who added that the ruling would ‘probably virtually … put most of the farms like mine out of business.’

Suffolk Downs started in 1935, right after parimutuel betting had been legalized within the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap here, breaking the background in the act. The race was attended by 40,000 individuals. The track has hosted races featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar over the years. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert here regarding the track’s infield in front side of 24,000 screaming fans.

Ultimately, though, a history that is richn’t enough to save your self Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill which was built to rescue this famous old racetrack seems to have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Simply Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump intent on saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And will he?

The word from The Donald is which he can, and what’s more, he says he’s what AC was lacking all these years. This week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment prepared to file for bankruptcy, the billionaire real estate mogul announced that he is ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt as the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors.

Expected by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would help to save The Trump Plaza and its own at-risk sister home, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what are the results. If I can help the people of Atlantic City I’ll do it.’

Later, on Twitter, and clearly warming to their theme, Trump stated: ‘I left Atlantic City years back, good timing. Now I might purchase back in, at lower expense, to conserve Plaza & Taj. They were run defectively by funds!’

Trump has been hugely critical of his company that is former Trump in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, perhaps catching wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched legal procedures to have his name eliminated through the gambling enterprises so as to protect their brand, of which he could be hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City many years back,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall under a state that is utter of and have otherwise unsuccessful to use and manage the casino properties in accordance with the high requirements of quality and luxury required under the permit agreement.’

Trump left the nj casino industry last year, and Trump Entertainment was bought down by a group of hedge fund managers and business bondholders, who have been permitted to retain the brand name in return for a 10 percent ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized business. He has received nothing related to the gambling enterprises’ day-to-day operations ever since then.

‘Does anybody notice that Atlantic City lost its miracle once I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It is really unfortunate to see what has occurred to Atlantic City. So numerous bad decisions by the pols through the years: airport, convention center, etc.’

In the early ’80s, Trump embarked for a joint project with Holiday Inn and Harrahs to build the Holiday Inn Casino resort. It absolutely was completed in 1984, and he quickly bought out his business partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the casino that is first ever owned, and this week it closed. Can it be that the notoriously cold-blooded home developer features a side that is sentimental? Or is it, just, as many people think, that he can’t resist some good promotion?

Promotion Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) believes in the explanation that is latter.

‘Donald is really a guy who likes to see his title within the paper,’ he said. ‘He’s never been shy about looking for publicity or getting publicity. The question is whether this is more promotion for Donald or whether he is intent on coming back to Atlantic City in a real means. We will see later on. Is Donald Trump looking to get some publicity, or perhaps is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and compose some checks.’

‘I’m able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to return as a savior,’ consented consultant that is gaming Norton. ‘ I don’t think Donald’s title would help the casinos that much,’ he said. ‘Our problem is, other casinos have opened up and take off traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, and also as if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on the top associated with the Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to put his money where their mouth is?